مدل جدید پیش بینی چند گامی تقاضا با استفاده از روش‌های یادگیری عمیق و تکنیک‌های داده‌افزایی سری زمانی
محورهای موضوعی : فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات
حسین عباسی مهر
1
(دانشگاه شهید مدنی آذربایجان)
رضا پاکی
2
(دانشگاه شهید مدنی آذربایجان)
کلید واژه: سری زمانی, یادگیری عمیق, حافظه طولانی کوتاه-مدت, شبکه کانولوشنی, مکانیزم خودتوجه چندسر,
چکیده مقاله :
در یک محیط تجاری که رقابت سختی بین شرکت‌ها وجود دارد، پیش‌بینی دقیق تقاضا یک امر مهمی است. اگر داده‌های مربوط به تقاضای مشتری را در نقاط گسسته‌ای از زمان جمع‌آوری کنیم، یک سری زمانی تقاضا به دست می‌آید. درنتیجه، مسئله پیش‌بینی تقاضا به عنوان یک مسئله پیش‌بینی سری‌های زمانی فرموله می‌شود. در زمینه پیش‌بینی سری‌های زمانی، روش‌های یادگیری عمیق دقت مناسبی در پیش‌بینی سری‌های زمانی پیچیده داشته‌اند. با این وجود عملکرد خوب این روش‌ها به میزان داده‌های در دسترس وابسته است. بدین منظور در این مطالعه استفاده از تکنیک‌های داده‌افزایی سری زمانی در کنار روش‌های یادگیری عمیق پیشنهاد می‌شود. در این مطالعه سه روش نوین جهت تست کارایی رویکرد پیشنهادی به کار گرفته شده است که عبارت اند از: 1) حافظه کوتاه مدت طولانی، 2) شبکه کانولوشنی 3) مکانیزم خودتوجه چندسر. همچنین در این مطالعه رویکرد پیش‌بینی چندگامی به کار گرفته می‌شود که امکان پیش‌بینی چند نقطه آینده را در یک عمل پیش‌بینی به وجود می‌آورد. روش پیشنهادی بر روی داده واقعی تقاضای یک شرکت مبلمان اعمال شده است. نتایج آزمایش‌ها نشان می‌دهد که رویکرد پیشنهادی باعث بهبود دقت پیش‌بینی روش‌های به‌کار گرفته شده در اکثر حالات مختلف پیش‌بینی می‌شود.
In a business environment where there is fierce competition between companies, accurate demand forecasting is vital. If we collect customer demand data at discrete points in time, we obtain a demand time series. As a result, the demand forecasting problem can be formulated as a time series forecasting task. In the context of time series forecasting, deep learning methods have demonstrated good accuracy in predicting complex time series. However, the excellent performance of these methods is dependent on the amount of data available. For this purpose, in this study, we propose to use time series augmentation techniques to improve the performance of deep learning methods. In this study, three new methods have been used to test the effectiveness of the proposed approach, which are: 1) Long short-term memory, 2) Convolutional network 3) Multihead self-attention mechanism. This study also uses a multi-step forecasting approach that makes it possible to predict several future points in a forecasting operation. The proposed method is applied to the actual demand data of a furniture company. The experimental results show that the proposed approach improves the forecasting accuracy of the methods used in most different prediction scenarios
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