A Framework for Technology Priority-Setting Using Fuzzy Inference Systems (Case study: Information Technology in Iran)
Subject Areas : Special
Amir Khodadadi
1
,
Gholamali Montazer
2
*
,
Seied Sepehr Ghazinori
3
,
Mohammad Hoseini Moghadam
4
1 - Ph.D. Student, Information Technology Management Group, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 - IT Engineering Departmrnt, Faculty of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3 - IT management department, faculty of Management & Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
4 - Institute for Social and Cultural Studies (ISCS): Tehran, Tehran, IR
Keywords: Technology Priority-setting, Capability-Attractiveness Criterion, Scenario Planning, Information Technology, Fuzzy Inference System,
Abstract :
Technology priority-setting is one of the most important aspects of science and technology policy-making. Due to their shortcomings, the existing methods and frameworks for technology priority-setting face limitations in providing policy recommendations to policymakers. One of these shortcomings is neglecting the future's uncertainties and the scenarios drawn for technological development. Another shortcoming is ambiguity among technological stakeholders regarding the parameters of evaluating technologies and their criteria. Fixing these defects requires revising the previous frameworks and introducing a new framework for priority-setting. On the other hand, considering the benefits of using intelligent systems in policymaking, the question is how to equip priority-setting with intelligence tools. In this article, by introducing a new framework for technology priority-setting that includes all three policy intelligence tools (forecasting, evaluation, foresight), the method of adding computational intelligence is explained with the help of fuzzy set theory. For this purpose, instead of conventional methods such as survey and multi-criteria decision-making, we use a fuzzy inference system to score the alternatives in the capability-attractiveness model, which helps to resolve the ambiguity of the range of criteria and provides a degree of intelligence for priority-setting. The criteria are also selected from among the dimensions of the uncertainty of the scenarios to consider the impact of future developments in the analysis of priorities. The achievement of the present research is an artifact that, with a degree of intelligence, can be used for information technology priority-setting at the national level.
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